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Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Iran's First Line Of Defense Against Israel [Dan from New York]

Dan from New York:

Military history will record Israel’s failure to vanquish Hizbullah in the Second Lebanon War as one of the great strategic blunders in the modern era of warfare. Israel had the golden opportunity to sever Iran’s right arm in the region, but PM Olmert and his military commander Halutz botched it. Olmert would then go on to compound his mistake two years later in Gaza, leaving Hamas - Iran’s left arm in the region - intact. Today, both Hamas and Hizbullah have grown much stronger, and so has their controller, Iran.

Here is a summary of a report from the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. You can read the whole thing right here. It shouldn’t be a mystery why Iran would put this “information” into the news stream now. They’re trying to scare off an attack on their nuclear weapons program by hyping the response. But you be the judge. Even if Iran isn’t bluffing, what would prove more costly, an elective attack before they get the H-bomb, or an obligatory attack after? Failing to act decisively now could be fatal.

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Hizbullah Discusses Its Operational Plan for War with Israel: Missile Fire on Tel Aviv and Conquest of the Galilee


In recent weeks Hizbullah leader Hasan Nasrallah held a series of meetings with his top-level military command as well as field commanders responsible for preparing for war with Israel. According to a source close to Hizbullah, Nasrallah's operational directive was that in the next military conflict with Israel, Hizbullah will hit Tel Aviv with missiles at the outset of the war, while also dispatching forces to conquer the Galilee.

Hizbullah forces are being trained to fire at least ten thousand missiles, right at the war's outset, at military and strategic targets such as airfields, military camps, and vital facilities including maritime ones, followed by the firing of rockets from launch sites whose location will come as a surprise to Israel.

The operational plan was formulated in tandem with senior Iranian strategic experts and will include a force of five thousand fighters who have recently trained in Iran, tasked with taking over designated zones in northern Israel including Nahariya, Shlomi, and Carmiel.

It was said that engineering units of the Iranian army had mined areas in the eastern Bekaa Valley that were seen as possible landing sites for Israeli special forces, and that Hizbullah had equipped itself with "smart" Iranian anti-tank missiles that can disrupt the defensive systems of Israel's Merkava tanks.

Nasrallah's recent escalation of public statements stems from heightened fear in Hizbullah that an Israeli and/or American attack on Iran is drawing nearer. As a strategic arm of Iran, Hizbullah sees itself as Iran's first line of defense against Israel.

To paraphrase Bill Ayers: it doesn't take a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing. I predict a revised forecast for the 'Arab Spring'.

Hopefully it involves darkness, followed by a bright flash of 8,000° heat in and around the compound protecting Ahmedinejad and the Mullahs.


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